Risks

What can go wrong, and what the design does not protect you from.

This page is written to be useful rather than reassuring. If something here changes your mind about participating, it has done its job.

Payouts can be zero

The ball only fills from trading fees. No trading means no fees, which means no rolls and no payouts, for as long as that lasts. There is no floor, no buffer and no mechanism that could manufacture a payout in a quiet month. Anyone modelling this as yield is modelling it wrong.

The token can fall further than the payouts

Being paid in USDC does not protect the value of what you hold. A position can receive every roll on schedule and still be worth substantially less than it cost. These are independent.

Contract risk

The contracts are not deployed and not yet audited. Until an audit is published, treat every mechanism described in these docs as intended behaviour rather than verified behaviour. Accumulator arithmetic, transfer hooks and the redemption path are the areas where a bug would be most costly.

Agent risk

The agent cannot move funds or change who gets paid — its only power is choosing when to call roll() inside the contract's bounds. But a compromised or simply bad agent can time rolls poorly, and can stall up to the fourteen-day force-roll deadline. See roll logic.

Yield venue risk

Parking idle USDC in tokenized treasuries introduces the one dependency the rest of the design avoids: an external issuer and its wrapper contract. If that venue fails or freezes redemptions, the parked portion of the ball is affected. This is the strongest argument for keeping the sweep conservative, or off. See yield.

Hold-weight surprises

The reset rule is blunt on purpose, and it will catch people out. Moving tokens to a new wallet, consolidating across your own addresses, or selling a token to test a route all reset your multiplier to 1.00× on your entire balance. Read hold weight before you move anything.

Regulatory risk

A mechanism that distributes dollars to token holders based on protocol revenue may be treated differently in different jurisdictions, and that treatment may change. Consider your own position.